Selective Takeaways from Mary Meeker’s Data Dump
June 1, 2017 | Contributed by: Greg Sterling
I’ve gone through all 355 slides — so you don’t have to. The chief virtue of KPCB’s Internet Trends report is that it combines a great deal of pre-existing data from numerous sources into a single “narrative” about growth and disruption.
The document is far too long to write about as a whole. However, below are some slides and themes that stood out for me.
Mary Meeker has long made the argument that over time digital ad spend will match time spent in particular channels. While the logic is simplistic, she’s been mostly proven correct. Accordingly, there’s still a great deal of headroom for mobile advertising growth. At 70 percent of digital media time, the logic argues that mobile will eventually capture 70% of digital ad spending.
Almost all digital ad revenue growth is coming from and to Google or Facebook. According to the IAB the top 10 online ad platforms accounted for nearly 75% of online ad revenue in 2016. An even smaller number of companies control mobile ad revenues.
The above slide, and a few others, stand for developments in location intelligence and offline attribution. Google, Facebook and a variety of others are increasingly connecting the dots from digital ads to store visits. The growing role of location data and the ability to bring multiple data sets together — to connect online and offline and multiple channels — are arguably the most significant developments in digital marketing today. One could also make arguments for AI and the cloud.
The above slide stands for a range of developments around content discovery and search that move away from the traditional text in a box way of searching. (There’s also sophisticated image recognition, powered by machine learning/AI on the back end.) Google announced Lens last week; Bing announced visual search today. Pinterest is doing innovative things with “tap and search” in images and so is e-commerce site Wayfair. Use of augmented reality is a related concept and we should see more augmented reality experiences deployed over the next 12 months in both novelty (ads, packaging) and utilitarian contexts (in stores, e-commerce apps).
Voice search, speech UIs and virtual assistants are related topics, providing alternative ways to access and consume information. Google’s current statement is that 20% of searches come from voice overall. However back in 2010 then Google CEO Eric Schmidt said “25 percent of Android searches in the US are voice searches.” Comscore predicts 50% of queries by voice in 2020.
There are a number of slides in the deck discussing Amazon and its growth. The company is simply a juggernaut and consumers are turning to it for more and more stuff. Amazon is one of the five major platforms/ecosystems that exist today: Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.
There are dozens of slides about games and their impact on individuals and the culture. Gaming is a big deal but I’m completely ignoring that part of the presentation.
There’s considerable discussion of the disruption of traditional entertainment business models and distribution, especially cable TV. There’s also a lengthy portion about cloud-based startups disrupting traditional enterprise software providers and taking their cue from consumer app design.
Meeker and her minions devote roughly 100 slides to market dynamics and trends in China and India, as the two largest developing markets. Then a considerable number of slides examine the healthcare industry and how data and devices are impacting the delivery of patient care.
At the end of this monster there is a macro-trend and economic analysis about the health of the US economy and consumer households.
The above slide is quite interesting in that tech companies now dominate the top 20 list of global market-cap leaders. And, as the slide below indicates, many of those were founded by immigrants or the adult children of immigrants.
If you want to go through the presentation yourself (perhaps before bed this evening), you can find it here.